Did Time Call the Strib the Second Shakiest Paper in the Country?
By Brian Lambert
There's never anything too empirical about these lists of "The 100
Greatest Movies of All Time" or "The 100 Greatest Rock Albums." But I
suppose if you apply one of those exotic correlative algorithms that
were all the rage on Wall Street the last few years and totaled up the
debt cracking the spinal column of a daily newspaper, factoring in its
declining advertising base and the indifference of its primary market
to its degeneration, you could put a factual gloss on Time magazine publishing a list of The Ten Most Endangered Newspapers in America and ranking our own Star Tribune the second worst financial basket case.
In the summer of '07, I boldly predicted, at whatever seminar or college classroom that'd have me, that the Twin Cities would be a one-newspaper town "within two years, maybe even eighteen months." My assumption was that Dean Singleton's Media News, owner of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, would bottom feed the remains of Avista Capital Partner's Minnesota debacle and roll what was left of the Strib into its group.
Much like the CEOs of CitiGroup, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America, and JP Morgan Chase, I didn't quite imagine the world economy "falling off a cliff," to borrow Warren Buffet's vivid imagery. So, as we close in on that two-year mark sometime this summer, I believe it is entirely possible that Minneapolis-St. Paul could become the first Top 25 metro area to become a no-newspaper town, assuming Seattle doesn't beat us to that ignominious punch.
Late last month, Seattle held a "town meeting" to discuss the possibility of both the Seattle Times and the Seattle Post-Intelligencer disappearing in the near future. One-hundred-fifty people showed up. An announcement could come as soon as tomorrow, Tuesday, that the Post-Intelligencer will either shut down completely or move to an all-online version with a drastically reduced staff and even lower prospects for generating advertising revenue than it has in its dead tree form.
The death throes saga of the Star Tribune has been told blow by ghastly detailed blow. The paper is currently devising some kind of plan that will allow it to emerge from bankruptcy with a hope of continuing publication, if only as a shadow of its current self. Frankly, I like GM's prospects more. At least people still believe they need a car. It's stunning how little talk I hear from "civilians" about the possible demise of either or both papers. But then when so many former subscribers are scouting REI's scratch-and-dent sale for a tent to call home, its not so surprising they aren't gnashing their teeth over the likelihood of getting all their news from the siren-chasing kids on local TV.
Over in St. Paul, the Pioneer Press, shrunken in every imaginable way, is a kind of lonely outpost operation for a company that long ago squeezed that last drop of blood from its union turnips. Singleton's operation appears to be on the same kind of fiduciary footing as the savvy operators that were still throwing up thirty-story condo towers in Vegas two years ago.
Not being particularly optimistic that we'll see anything remotely like an economic turnaround this year (certainly not in advertising) and being pretty well convinced that we're going to have to go through the shocks of (temporary) nationalization of the big "zombie" banks, the bankruptcy (and union disruption) of GM and very possibly the loss of Chrysler, plus a brutal consumer credit clampdown, I have a very hard time seeing either Avista or MediaNews continuing to hemorrhage dough for the bragging rights of being the last man standing in Minnesota.
Also, the psychological effect of other "dominoes," such as the Rocky Mountain News and the Post-Intelligencer (and the San Francisco Chronicle), makes liquidation all that more conceivable.
For some time now the, uh, optimists amid the doom-and-gloom journalism crowd have speculated that "at some point" a white knight brigade of well-heeled, civic-minded leaders would step in and save one or the other paper. At one point, I thought this imaginary resuscitator would bust a move once the Strib's value dropped to, oh, $150 million.
Well, the value of the Strib blew by $150 super-K like Wile E. Coyote riding the anvil to the desert floor. I heard the number $70 million today. To that my reaction was, "Why pay anything for it?" If you want to be a news publisher in the Twin Cities and understand that paper is an anachronism, Joel Kramer's MinnPost is there for the modeling, and if you wait (and if you actually have a line of credit), you can have everyone that works for him today and anyone else you need to be credible for 50 percent of what they've been paying at the Strib.
Assuming no dramatic reinvigoration of credit markets, I'll make another new prediction. No daily papers at all in the Twin Cities by the Ides of March '10.
Bold predictions are, of course, entirely free and unencumbered by leveraged debt.
In the summer of '07, I boldly predicted, at whatever seminar or college classroom that'd have me, that the Twin Cities would be a one-newspaper town "within two years, maybe even eighteen months." My assumption was that Dean Singleton's Media News, owner of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, would bottom feed the remains of Avista Capital Partner's Minnesota debacle and roll what was left of the Strib into its group.
Much like the CEOs of CitiGroup, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America, and JP Morgan Chase, I didn't quite imagine the world economy "falling off a cliff," to borrow Warren Buffet's vivid imagery. So, as we close in on that two-year mark sometime this summer, I believe it is entirely possible that Minneapolis-St. Paul could become the first Top 25 metro area to become a no-newspaper town, assuming Seattle doesn't beat us to that ignominious punch.
Late last month, Seattle held a "town meeting" to discuss the possibility of both the Seattle Times and the Seattle Post-Intelligencer disappearing in the near future. One-hundred-fifty people showed up. An announcement could come as soon as tomorrow, Tuesday, that the Post-Intelligencer will either shut down completely or move to an all-online version with a drastically reduced staff and even lower prospects for generating advertising revenue than it has in its dead tree form.
The death throes saga of the Star Tribune has been told blow by ghastly detailed blow. The paper is currently devising some kind of plan that will allow it to emerge from bankruptcy with a hope of continuing publication, if only as a shadow of its current self. Frankly, I like GM's prospects more. At least people still believe they need a car. It's stunning how little talk I hear from "civilians" about the possible demise of either or both papers. But then when so many former subscribers are scouting REI's scratch-and-dent sale for a tent to call home, its not so surprising they aren't gnashing their teeth over the likelihood of getting all their news from the siren-chasing kids on local TV.
Over in St. Paul, the Pioneer Press, shrunken in every imaginable way, is a kind of lonely outpost operation for a company that long ago squeezed that last drop of blood from its union turnips. Singleton's operation appears to be on the same kind of fiduciary footing as the savvy operators that were still throwing up thirty-story condo towers in Vegas two years ago.
Not being particularly optimistic that we'll see anything remotely like an economic turnaround this year (certainly not in advertising) and being pretty well convinced that we're going to have to go through the shocks of (temporary) nationalization of the big "zombie" banks, the bankruptcy (and union disruption) of GM and very possibly the loss of Chrysler, plus a brutal consumer credit clampdown, I have a very hard time seeing either Avista or MediaNews continuing to hemorrhage dough for the bragging rights of being the last man standing in Minnesota.
Also, the psychological effect of other "dominoes," such as the Rocky Mountain News and the Post-Intelligencer (and the San Francisco Chronicle), makes liquidation all that more conceivable.
For some time now the, uh, optimists amid the doom-and-gloom journalism crowd have speculated that "at some point" a white knight brigade of well-heeled, civic-minded leaders would step in and save one or the other paper. At one point, I thought this imaginary resuscitator would bust a move once the Strib's value dropped to, oh, $150 million.
Well, the value of the Strib blew by $150 super-K like Wile E. Coyote riding the anvil to the desert floor. I heard the number $70 million today. To that my reaction was, "Why pay anything for it?" If you want to be a news publisher in the Twin Cities and understand that paper is an anachronism, Joel Kramer's MinnPost is there for the modeling, and if you wait (and if you actually have a line of credit), you can have everyone that works for him today and anyone else you need to be credible for 50 percent of what they've been paying at the Strib.
Assuming no dramatic reinvigoration of credit markets, I'll make another new prediction. No daily papers at all in the Twin Cities by the Ides of March '10.
Bold predictions are, of course, entirely free and unencumbered by leveraged debt.
© 2008 MSP Communications, Inc. All rights reserved
Not to be too much of a pain, but the story posted at Time.com is actually from a content provider called "247 Wall Street". "24/7 Wall St. has created a list of the 10 major daily papers that are most likely to fold or shutter their print operations and only publish online."
I wonder if this story would have garnered as much attention if it wasn't reprinted by time.com.
So anyway, your story asked if "TIME called the Strib the Second Shakiest Paper in the Country?" My answer: Not really.
LAMBERT: You are ... of course .. correct. But the fact that TIME.com dropped the story on to its website, without qualification, suggests it places a high degree of confidence in ... one of those lists.
Mr. DeRusha is perhaps best known for his "Good Question" segment on WCCO-TV. Others of us know him as one of the town's most, um, energetic bloggers.
Posted by: Jason DeRusha on March 10, 2009 at 11:06 PM
Can we talk? You (and Brauer) are a bit like the guy that won't stop talking about the girl that dumped him. Look, she was hot, but you need to move on. You don't see Stevie Aschburner obsessing over the latest Souhan brouhaha or Avista cramdown.
LAMBERT: Ok, when you're right you're right. I follow the "Death of" stories (print, Strib, PiPress) because they are relevant. But as I suggested in the blog I am struck by howfew people outside "the circle" give a damn. That ain't good. But it is real.
Posted by: Paul Kane on March 11, 2009 at 12:07 PM
Meanwhile, who's going to pick up the slack? We're being given a disquieting glimpse by the MN House Rules and Legislative Administration Committee regarding floor and committee access to online journalists, or, rather, the lack of it.
The increasingly exclusive posture of the committee, most saliently in the person of Majority Leader Tony Sertich, should give particular pause to people who still aspire to participating in this democratic republic. Though, I guess with so many of us with more time on our hands than money, we can individually head over to St. Paul and follow the legislative sausage grinding on our time. Te average shmuck on the street has as much access as so-called online bloggers at the Capitol.
I pray you're wrong about the imminence of our status as a no-newspaper coupla' towns. Because without them, well, we'll have to rely on the blogosphere's handbags at twenty paces approach to political coverage. Thus far, I'd say it isn't up to the job.
LAMBERT: Big shock, huh. elected officials are lagging behind the new media curve. The irony is that there are at least three flat-out nincompoops "covering" the legislature who should be replaced by any "blogger" sitting in your favorite coffee shop.
Posted by: Jim Leinfelder on March 11, 2009 at 12:18 PM
I'm surprised there seems very little action around keeping the brand online. Rocky Mountain News folded up lock-stock-and-barrel ... with some folks apparently moving over to the Denver Post.
But even from Hearst, still doubt about keeping journalism going at whatever level possible online.
Even in their demise newspaper *still* don't seem to get it.
Amazing.
LAMBERT: On-line revenue -- tanking like every other kind of ad revenue -- would barely barely pay for a couple of those sweet old ladies who used to run the Strib switchboard.
Posted by: new media guy on March 11, 2009 at 12:37 PM
I grew up reading both the Star and the Tribune, and will mourn the passing of the current incarnation, such as it is.
While it is reasonable to be concerned about the lack of working journalists speaking truth to power in the Twins and at the Capitol, on a more mundane level I have to admit my concern about there being no central place for publication of obituaries. It's obviously one of those things that comes with age, but I tend to read the obits now long before I turn to sports. That's probably not unusual among the handful of us old dogs who still read the Strib on a daily basis.
LAMBERT: You're not getting misty eyed are you?
Posted by: A Son of Mississippi on March 11, 2009 at 3:58 PM
BL = "...makes liquidation all that more conceivable."
To who, The Onion? They seem to be the most healthy alternative, eh?
And Jimmy's right, if the Legislature has no reliable coverage for its 'public' meetings, I suppose a few of us 10s of thousands of unemployed people can swing by and get the news firsthand...they'd like the audience, I'm sure.
When's the next meeting, dibs on the front row...Content is king!
LAMBERT: "King" if costs nothing ...
Posted by: The Other Mike on March 11, 2009 at 8:40 PM
A bit of new media math math:
According to siteanalytics.com startribune.com had 4.7mm visits in Feb. and six pages per visit which is 28.2mm pageviews.
Assume an average $7 cpm (revenue per 1,000 pages) -- which is a conservative number given all revenue streams, and if it's not that's trouble.
That's ~$200,000 per month or $2.4mm per year. Assume two-third non-newsroom expenses and you've got $800,000 a year for a newsroom.
Not gold-plated, but not peanuts, either. A 10% hike in eCPM or pageviews and you've got another $20,000 per month.
So, the focus turns to growing instead of slowing decline. That's healthy and how one of the two papers saty in business.
LAMBERT: I believe Joel Kramer's stated annual budget is $1.3 million. $800k is maybe a staff of 15-18.
Posted by: new media guy on March 11, 2009 at 9:56 PM
I was very proud to join the staff of the Tribune in 1969. A few years earlier -- 1964, I think -- it had been on Time magazine's list of the 10 best newspapers in the country. Former colleague Molly Ivins (I'm such a name-dropper) quoted that fact in a farewell article when she left for the Texas Observer in 1970 or '71. Now the paper is on Time's (subcontracted?) list of the 10 newspapers most likely to fold. So. I'm retired; Molly's dead; what's my point? I don't know... anybody else care?
LAMBERT: For what it's worth, I care. i just think the "deep recession" creates such a deep trough the most vulnerable have no way out.
Posted by: Dick Parker on March 11, 2009 at 11:54 PM
"Longtime listener, first-time caller..."
I appreciate the name-check, I think ("Stevie?") from Paul Kane:
Can we talk? You (and Brauer) are a bit like the guy that won't stop talking about the girl that dumped him. Look, she was hot, but you need to move on. You don't see Stevie Aschburner obsessing over the latest Souhan brouhaha or Avista cramdown.
But just because you don't see it doesn't mean I don't do it. I'm hoping to draw a teensy pension out of that joint some day, so I've got a reason to root for its survival, if not its, er, thrival.
Keep up the good work. You and Brauer keep us informed by keeping the dailies (somewhat) honest.
LAMBERT: But will Nancy Barnes ever speak to either of us?
Posted by: Steve Aschburner on March 12, 2009 at 12:13 PM
LTTS: "The irony is that there are at least three flat-out nincompoops "covering" the legislature who should be replaced by any "blogger" sitting in your favorite coffee shop."
My curiosity's piqued. Who would those particular three nincompoops be?
LAMBERT: I'm not suggesting any of the established pros at either paper. But there are some other very odd acts floating around those halls. Not sayin' any more.
Posted by: Jim Leinfelder on March 12, 2009 at 2:37 PM
"I tend to read the obits now long before I turn to sports."
That's it! I'm launching an obits blog.
LAMBERT: Don't forget the social networking component.
Posted by: Charlie Quimby on March 12, 2009 at 8:42 PM
I appreciated Dick Parker's comment mentioning Molly Ivins. I may not have been the same article that Dick had in mind,but I vividly recall a piece Molly wrote on her departure from the Tribune. It bore a headline something like "The Minneapolis Tribune is a Stone, Cold Drag."
Another bit of history.
These times are not unlike 1980 when I got hired by the Minneapolis Star, and Steve Issacs was the crazy editor.
Steve was hired because of his pedigree - a Washington Post wunderkind and the son of Norman Issacs - and to just do SOMETHING to pull the Star out of a death-dive.
Well, Steve did things alright. Some really crazy things. They did not work.
And in the final edition of the Minneapolis Star, Jim Klobuchar had a column on the front page that took notice of those crazy Issacs ideas. Klobe rightfully said they probably hastened the demise of the dying Star.
Fast-forward to 2009. The current Strib newsroom management seems to be mimicking Issacs. Their wreckless and misguided flailings, too, seem to be hastening the Strib's demise.
Did I mention that Tim McGuire was Issacs' right-hand man? Yet Tim survived the Star and Tribune merger. He bested Frank Wright as the survivor in the managing editor contest. It was a miracle.
LAMBERT: Isaacs is probably remembered best for "brush clearing" around Lake Harriet.
Posted by: Paul Gustafson on March 13, 2009 at 9:31 AM
I live in Moorhead, where for a couple of days this week, nothing came in or out except arctic air; consequently I missed the strib for two days. Ten years ago I would have missed the paper as in having a hole in my daily routine that created dissatisfaction. Now, I was annoyed I couldn't get the crossword and soduku on paper and lost a couple of days of my favorite comic strips.
The Rocky Mountain News, a good paper for those obsessed with ax murders, is gone. The Seattle PI is toast; it wasn't much of a paper, but it was the liberal paper. You know you're in trouble when the liberal paper in town is a Hearst paper.
Posted by: john sherman on March 13, 2009 at 7:51 PM
Better hurry, Mr. Quimby, there is an obit cable channel launching in Canada.
Posted by: Jim Leinfelder on March 14, 2009 at 5:17 PM