I’ve decided to veer away from the miasma of depressing political campaigns and global financial turmoil to explore a topic more than a few of us are talking about—Southwest Airlines’ long-awaited decision to fly to MSP. (How interested are we? The story made both local papers’ front pages and was “most viewed” for hours on the Strib website.)
It’s interesting because it offers some insight into how and why things happen in the mystifying world of the airline industry, which so many of us rely on these days.
Chicago is the most traveled air destination from MSP, and for most of the past decade, it has boasted a discount carrier (defunct ATA, then Air Tran), which kept fares and restrictions low. When Air Tran pulled out in spring, saying it could not make money on the route, fares and restrictions skyrocketed. For much of the summer and early fall, the minimum fare MSP-CHI has been $397, which is higher than SFO, LAX, Vegas, NYC, and Denver from MSP. A same-day round trip for shopping, business, or a ball game jumped from as little as $138 to nearly $900.
Our homegrown discounter, Sun Country, always shunned the route—perhaps due to the discount competition and the Chicago market’s proclivity to air delays, which can wreak havoc with a small carrier's national operations. Sun Country surprisingly did not fill the void after Air Tran left in May, in part due to its precarious financial state, I imagine.
Southwest has long pursued the low-hanging fruit, focusing on the largest markets and heaviest-traveled routes—MSP-CHI was a gimme, it seemed. It jumped now because the MSP-CHI market was “open,” it’s a very profitable route for several carriers, and it wanted to get a jump on Jet Blue if it was considering coming in.
But Southwest shunned many of the hubs of other carriers, never serving Atlanta, Boston, Cincy, MSP, Memphis, Chicago O’Hare, Miami, JFK, etc. Southwest has been especially cautious about taking on Northwest Airlines (known for its effective competitive response to discounters), offering a skeleton network of flights out of Detroit and none from its other hubs. Sun Country’s presence here was an additional deterrence.
But after Southwest’s primary markets became saturated and other discounters added service in may of them, the airline tweaked its strategy. A major push into Denver (United and Frontier’s hub) last year paid off handsomely for SW, and this year it deployed additional aircraft and resources from other markets there.
Southwest will certainly add destinations from MSP if flyers embrace the carrier. (Twin Citians have shown a profound reluctance to abandon Northwest and Worldperks when a discounter comes calling.)
It may not happen until Southwest begins service, but fares in the Chicago market will return to what they looked like a year ago under AirTran’s influence. The major carriers will match Southwest’s pricing and rules, which are among the lowest and loosest in the business. And unlike ATA and AirTran, Southwest is among the most financially stable airlines out there—it has taken on the nation’s biggest carriers, and it usually thrives and coexists. Once Southwest arrives, it is generally there to stay.
No, Southwest will not change air travel as you know it. It’s just a 737 flight with peanuts. Its frequent-flyer program cannot get you out of the US forty-eight, you can’t get upgraded to first class or get an assigned seat or fly to many of the fifty states. But it is among the simplest of airlines to fly—with no fees for checked baggage, ticket changes, premium seating, etc. And it will restore our most popular air route to one of our most economical.